[AP] N. Korea’s low death count questioned amid COVID-19 outbreak

LINK: https://apnews.com/article/covid-health-epidemics-north-korea-6135c9f9c72536afb67f5f7ceb0569d7

On Monday, when the North’s fever cases had already surpassed 1.2 million, Ryu Yong Chol, an official at Pyongyang’s anti-virus headquarters, said on state TV that the government had detected 168 COVID-19 cases as of last Saturday. There have been no updates on the North’s virus cases since then.

Ahn Kyung-su, head of DPRKHEALTH.ORG, a website focusing on health issues in North Korea, said Pyongyang had likely determined its omicron outbreak won’t cause catastrophic fatalities but disclosed it to prevent potential public unrest. He said North Korea’s increased anti-virus measures are partly meant to solidify its control of a public tired of previous restrictions and other difficulties.

“North Korea’s pandemic response isn’t completely staged as people are dying. But it’s obvious that its leadership’s political intentions have been added there,” Ahn said. “One day, they’ll proclaim their victory over COVID-19 in a colorful manner.”

North Korea’s public medical system remains in shambles, and experts say the country could suffer mass pandemic fatalities if it doesn’t receive outside aid shipments. They say the country’s elevated restrictions on movement and quarantine rules may also worsen its food insecurity.

북한은 평양종합병원을 임시 코로나 격리 치료 시설로 활용할 가능성이 있다

LINK: https://www.rfa.org/korean/news_indepth/coronank-05192022092236.html

[기자] 북한 당국이 어떻게 이 사태를 극복해 나갈까요?

[안경수 센터장] 북한에서 유열자는 앞으로 계속해서 많아질 것이고, 완치자와 격리치료자도 많아질 텐데, 북한 입장에서는 지금 상대적으로 치료 격리 시설이나 이런 게 많이 부족한 건 맞아요.

그런데 북한이 최근 의료기구 공장을 굉장히 많이 활성화시켰어요. 의료기구 공장에서 생산되는 물품 중에 중요한 물품이 병원 침상인데요. 즉 격리 치료할 수 있는 상황에 필요한 장비들은 북한 자체적으로도 충분히 생산 가능하다는 거에요.

또 평양종합병원이 지금 건설이 다 되어 있죠. 저는 북한이 평양종합병원을 평양에서 격리 치료 병동으로 활용할 가능성이 크다고 봅니다. 제가 분석해본 바로는 평양종합병원 건물이 제대로 지금 다 세워졌고, 의료기구 공장에서 계속해서 침상이나 또 필요한 의료 기구들 설비가 아주 잘 되고 있어요. 그래서 이러한 시설을 활용할 가능성이 크다고 보고 있습니다.

About the recent COVID-19 situation in North Korea

President Ahn Kyung-su from DPRKHEALTH.ORG

COVID-19 has been officially mentioned for the first time on May 12 by North Korean authorities, but I don’t believe there have been no cases of COVID-19 in North Korea so far. It is difficult to trust the statistics that North Korea has publicly revealed.

Even though the statistics may not be accurate, we can still grasp the COVID-19 situation of North Korea to some extent. Therefore, it is true that there are confirmed cases of Omicron and BA.2 infections in North Korea, that patients are showing fever symptoms, and that COVID-19 tests are being conducted on them.

Although the COVID-19 situation is said to be the last phase around the world, the COVID-19 situation in China has recently been very urgent. large cities have been strongly blocked due to the zero-COVID policy in China. North Korea is also closely monitoring the Lockdowns of large cities under China’s zero-COVID policy. Accordingly, the North Korean authorities need to call for the awakening of North Korean people and staff in charge of quarantine.

Therefore, I think North Korean authorities announced COVID-19 outbreak news to give pressure or awakening to the their residents and quarantine staffs at the end of the COVID-19 phase.

By announcing the outbreak of COVID-19 patients for the first time officailly, I think it was intended to support Covid vaccine or pills to some extent. Especially I think North Korea wants to receive support for the Covid pill such as Paxlovid rather than a vaccine from international organizations including the United States.

This is because drugs are much simpler in terms of transportation, distribution and management personnel than vaccines.

And North Korea cannot benefit much from vaccines under the current circumstances. Even if vaccines are imported from outside, it seems very late considering the transportation and distribution process, the time required for medical personnel training, and the time it takes for vaccines to be effective after inoculation. Therefore, North Korea would prefer to receive support for Covid pills.

Omicron and BA.2 variant are very infectious as they are known. Obviously, due to the nature of the Omicron and BA.2 variant, I expect the number of confirmed infectious cases to increase significantly in North Korea. However, since the Omicron and BA.2 variant has a low fatality rate as it is known, I believe that the crisis will be overcome well if the North Korean authorities properly manage and treat patients.

North Korea, of course, is relatively lacking in medical equipment, quarantine supplies, and testing abilities compared to other countries. By the way, I believe North Korea has been testing COVID-19 in large cities since 2020 and has been well prepared for its own COVID-19 quarantine until now.

It’s important to remember that North Korea is currently in between seasons, which has a huge temperature variation between day and night. During the change of seasons, cold symptoms such as fever, body aches, and cough occur a lot among people, and such symptoms are similar in the case of omicron and BA.2 variant.

This means that not all patients with fever in North Korea are infected with COVID-19. So, I disagree with some experts and the media who are predicting a disaster in North Korea by assuming all those with fever are infected with COVID-19.

북한은 미국에게 코로나 백신을 지원 받을까

LINK: https://www.rfa.org/korean/news_indepth/coronavaccine-05172022162542.html

북한 보건의료 전문가인 한국 통일의료연구센터의 안경수 센터장은 (16일) RFA에 북한이 미국에서 생산되는 화이자와 모더나 백신을 요구해왔다며 성사될 가능성이 있다고 평가했습니다.

[안경수 센터장] 남북 간 코로나 관련 대북 지원보다 미국의 대북 지원이 더 빠르게 진행될 가능성이 있습니다. 남북보다는 북미 간의 (지원이) 가능성 있다고 생각됩니다. 북한이 (백신 지원을) 받으려면 미국의 모더나나 화이자, 특히 화이자 백신을 대규모로 지원하고 모더나와 화이자도 그냥 지원해서는 안 되고, 콜드체인을 통해서 지원해야 하는데요. 북한 같은 나라는 극저온의 관리와 유통까지 한 번에 제공해줘야 합니다.

안경수 센터장은 미국의 추가 기술 지원을 통해 북한 내 백신 보급이 가능하리라 평가했습니다.

[안경수 센터장] 미국에서 기술지원만 해주면 북한도 충분히 (백신 보급이) 가능하다고 봅니다. 북한은 통제가 잘 되기 때문에 매뉴얼대로만 기술지원을 받으면 북한뿐 아니라 어느 나라도 다 할 수 있는 부분입니다. 북한보다 시스템적으로 안 좋고 통제가 안 되는 나라도 백신 접종을 했단 말이에요. 그렇기 때문에 기술 지원받고 미국과 협력만 잘하면 기술적으로 문제는 없습니다.

그는 이어 공급이 수요를 넘어선 국제 백신 보급량과 북한 내 백신의 위급성을 고려해 대북 백신 지원이 빠르게 진행되리라 전망했습니다.

[안경수 센터장] 갑자기 빠르게 진행될 수 있습니다. 전 세계적으로 모더나와 화이자 백신이 남아돌고 있고, 백신이 중증화로 가는 걸 예방해 준다고 하잖아요. 현실적으로 바이든 대통령이 다음 주 아시아 순방할 때 이에 대한 해답 혹은 언급이 나올 수 있다고 봅니다.

안 센터장은 북한 당국의 백신 반입이 결정되면 백신 보급은 문제없이 진행될 수 있다고 말했습니다.

[안경수 센터장] 북한이 승낙하면 순안국제공항으로 바로 가면 되거든요. 그래서 미국 측의 콜드체인 준비과정과 비행기 시간, 그리고 북한 측에서 진행될 (의료 인력들에 대한) 교육 시간만 있으면 된다고 봅니다.

그는 백신이 중증화 및 사망 위험을 포함한 코로나 비루스로 인해 발생하는 심각한 수준의 후유증을 완화하기 때문에 백신 보급은 하루빨리 이뤄져야 한다고 강조했습니다.